Reflections on the rout

“Take a deep breath….everything will be okay.” This is something I find myself saying to my kids, who live so in the moment, that anything upsetting right now, might seem to them like it could last forever. Of course, usually within about 10 minutes they have completely forgotten about it and are happily playing again. But … More Reflections on the rout

BoE: “super Thursday” and inflation overshooting

The BoE’s first “super Thursday” has come and gone, with most of the commentary since suggesting it wasn’t quite so super after all. But I actually thought there was a lot of important messages from the press conference and supporting materials. I will go through my key takeaways below, but I thought it was first worth … More BoE: “super Thursday” and inflation overshooting

BoE: austerity ‘lite’ prevents BoE fright

With the much-anticipated new communications regime not starting for another month, no change for the BoE today meant today was a non-event. However, we have had 24 hours to digest the post-election “emergency” budget delivered by the Chancellor yesterday. It turned out, once again, that Osborne’s bark is worse than his bite. Throughout the election … More BoE: austerity ‘lite’ prevents BoE fright

Trade idea: sell short sterling from Dec-15 out to Jun-16

I argued after the BoE’s February Inflation Report that they were closer to hiking than you might think (here). Since then market pricing has seen the expected timing of the first rate hike get pushed further out to around Sept/Oct 2016, from around April 2016. So what has happened in the past three weeks, and should … More Trade idea: sell short sterling from Dec-15 out to Jun-16