Since my original trade idea post (here) in late July and update (here) on the “Troubled Three”, their currencies have weakened further against the dollar. BRL went through my target a little while ago, and while TRY and ZAR a a little off their lows, they are also around my target range. I am starting … More Trade idea: take-profit on BRL, TRY, ZAR basket
Initial market (and Finance Twitter) reaction to the FOMC decision and subsequent press conference last Thursday seemed pretty unequivocal – this was a dovish hold. The one combination that was likely to lead to the most investor pain. A hawkish hold, or even a hike would have been preferred. But I am once again left … More FOMC review: was it really that dovish?
You know when “how to understand the Fed” guides appear in the mainstream press that the policy decision tonight has become the most over-analysed ever. So I am not going to add much to the debate here, other to give a short summary of my views. At the start of the year I expected the Fed to hike … More FOMC: a finely balanced decision
Fundamental Macro 