June 2015 – Fundamental Macro

Euro Area: The Five Presidents’ Report: the solutions remain the same, it’s over to the politicians

June 26, 2015

In the midst of the ongoing bailout nonsense negotiations with Greece, the long-awaited roadmap document for the future of the European economic and monetary union was released earlier this week (here). It comes over 18 months after the original “Four Presidents” report of November 2012 (here), with the Commission taking the baton from the Council in … More Euro Area: The Five Presidents’ Report: the solutions remain the same, it’s over to the politicians

FOMC: June meeting preview; Part 2 (statement, projections and dots)

June 16, 2015

Following on from the first part of my June FOMC preview yesterday (here), this post looks at the likely changes to the statement, economic projections and interest rate ‘dot’ plot. Now that the Fed are in more traditional data-dependency mode, I expect only the first paragraph of the statement to change, reflecting the data developments over … More FOMC: June meeting preview; Part 2 (statement, projections and dots)

FOMC: Preparing for lift-off

June 15, 2015

Earlier this year (indeed since about Q3 last year) I had expected that the Fed would start the process of policy normalisation in June. That was predicated on the idea that the headwinds to growth were abating, the neutral real rate of interest was rising, and without a policy response we would see growth accelerate, unemployment … More FOMC: Preparing for lift-off

BoE: More Mansion House Malaise?

June 9, 2015

Tomorrow night brings the annual Mansion House (MH) speech, the most important of the year for the Governor of the BoE. While some MH speeches have been dull affairs, with the Chancellor taking the limelight, the Governor tends to use it to make significant policy statements or announcements. Indeed, I would say that it has … More BoE: More Mansion House Malaise?

Top trade review: part 2

June 2, 2015

Following my post yesterday looking back at my top trade ideas for the past 3 months (here), it was suggested that I could usefully include a table of total return (%) and Sharpe for each trade. Here it is:

Three month review of top trade ideas

June 1, 2015

Following on from the recent review of my red list of macro themes (here), this post looks back at how my favourite trade ideas have performed over the past 3 months. Overall, the trades have worked pretty well. All of them are in the money, some more so than others. The trades I have had listed … More Three month review of top trade ideas

Fundamental Macro

A blog on macroeconomics, monetary policy and global macro trading by Mick Grady

Month: June 2015