“Take a deep breath….everything will be okay.” This is something I find myself saying to my kids, who live so in the moment, that anything upsetting right now, might seem to them like it could last forever. Of course, usually within about 10 minutes they have completely forgotten about it and are happily playing again. But … More Reflections on the rout
A quick update to the post from a little under a month ago on the Troubled Three – Brazil, Turkey and South Africa (here). At the time I argued that the fundamentals suggested a further weakening in these currencies, and that from a trading perspective, the momentum was supportive. Over the past month an equal-weighted basket … More EM: Update on Troubled Three and currency weakness
Yesterday morning the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) surprised everyone by announcing a change to the way it was going to calculate the daily fixing rate for the Yuan (CNY). They said that the fixing would be more market-determined. More on that below, but for those unfamiliar with the exchange rate regime in China, the currency … More China: the PBoC play with fire
The BoE’s first “super Thursday” has come and gone, with most of the commentary since suggesting it wasn’t quite so super after all. But I actually thought there was a lot of important messages from the press conference and supporting materials. I will go through my key takeaways below, but I thought it was first worth … More BoE: “super Thursday” and inflation overshooting
Tomorrow brings a new era of MPC communications strategy from the BoE. Gone are the one and two week gaps between the policy announcement and the press conference and minutes respectively. And instead we get what has been dubbed “super Thursday”. Starting at 12.00 we get the policy announcement (with a new statement summarising the decision), … More BoE: “super Thursday”; Part 2
I received the question below earlier today about potential short sterling reaction to the BoE on Thursday. I thought I would post the answer below, and follow up tomorrow with some more detailed thoughts on what will likely be an eventful day. Mick, would you agree on the following ? Re Thursay’s BOE vote on … More BoE: “super Thursday”, Part 1
Fundamental Macro 