Just over a month ago I posted a trade recommendation to sell front short sterling contracts (here). The trade summary was: With a 300k DV01 allocation (100k in each bucket) the current PnL on the trade is $4.1m, close to half way to the target. The trade is working nicely, but I wonder whether it … More Trade idea: update on paid short sterling
Following Tony Blair’s recent intervention in the UK election campaign (here), and with UKIP trying its hardest to keep in the headlines, I thought a post on the economic costs and benefits of Britain leaving the EU would be worthwhile. A lot has been written on the subject since PM Cameron pledged to hold a … More Brexit: weighing the economic costs and benefits
If you are interested in the likely outcome of the UK general election on 7 May, then I can’t recommend highly enough the team at http://www.electionforecast.co.uk They are working with the US statistician Nate Silver (http://fivethirtyeight.com/) who is now widely regarded as the best at interpreting US election polls (and indeed all things statistical). The … More UK election 2015: it’s going to be messy
Fundamental Macro 