For the uninitiated, the quarterly Australian Capex data is possibly the most confusing macro release anywhere in the world. But it is a treasure trove of information, which provides one of the richest possible pictures of capital expenditure now and over the coming couple of years. Of course, the usual caveats apply when analysing these data, … More Australian data: Capex cliff worsens
Having first posted it 3 months ago, it is time for me review my “red list” of global macro themes. I tend to review it on roughly that frequency, in part to see if the themes have endured/played out as I had expected, and partly just because I think it is good practice to have … More Red list review: how are the macro themes developing in 2015?
I closed out my short sterling position on 13 May (see here for original trade analysis and here for close post), following the release of the BoE’s Inflation Report. I was concerned that the BoE was taking a more dovish tone and that the risk/reward to the front end was shifting. Having spent some time … More Trade review: short sterling
First day back after two weeks early summer sunshine in Salento (the heel of Italy) and I have spent the afternoon watching the BoE MPC press conference on playback and reading the May Inflation Report. And while watching events from afar last week left me a little worried that the risks were tipping to a later … More BoE: edging closer to the start of normalisation
I am closing out my paid short sterling position. I am well short of my target PnL, but time to book some profit on the back of the BoE inflation report. Need to analyse implications carefully, particularly as I “worry” that productivity will now surprise the BoE on the upside, potentially delaying hikes further. Full … More Closing out short sterling position