2015 in review

Hi all, Thanks to everyone who supported the blog in 2015 by reading it and sending me comments/questions. You may (or may not) have wondered why I’ve not posted anything for the past few months. Having returned to gainful employment (at Aviva Investors), I’m not really able to blog on global macro topics. But I … More 2015 in review

Reflections on the rout

“Take a deep breath….everything will be okay.” This is something I find myself saying to my kids, who live so in the moment, that anything upsetting right now, might seem to them like it could last forever. Of course, usually within about 10 minutes they have completely forgotten about it and are happily playing again. But … More Reflections on the rout

EM: Update on Troubled Three and currency weakness

A quick update to the post from a little under a month ago on the Troubled Three – Brazil, Turkey and South Africa (here). At the time I argued that the fundamentals suggested a further weakening in these currencies, and that from a trading perspective, the momentum was supportive. Over the past month an equal-weighted basket … More EM: Update on Troubled Three and currency weakness