Economic impact of Brexit
June 30, 2016
Some thoughts on the near-term economic, market and policy impact of Brexit: https://uk.avivainvestors.com/gb/en/institutional/insights/economic-research/after-the-referendum.html
The red list has a new home
May 18, 2016
Brexit: why a decision to leave the EU will be costly
April 1, 2016
Aviva Investors sets out in this briefing note why Brexit would be bad for the UK: https://uk.avivainvestors.com/gb/en/institutional/insights/economic-research/brexit-house-view.html
Fed kick-starts new era of divergence
January 22, 2016
A new blog post from my work site: https://uk.avivainvestors.com/gb/en/institutional/insights.economic-research.html
2015 in review
December 31, 2015
Hi all, Thanks to everyone who supported the blog in 2015 by reading it and sending me comments/questions. You may (or may not) have wondered why I’ve not posted anything for the past few months. Having returned to gainful employment (at Aviva Investors), I’m not really able to blog on global macro topics. But I … More 2015 in review
Trade idea: take-profit on BRL, TRY, ZAR basket
September 22, 2015
Since my original trade idea post (here) in late July and update (here) on the “Troubled Three”, their currencies have weakened further against the dollar. BRL went through my target a little while ago, and while TRY and ZAR a a little off their lows, they are also around my target range. I am starting … More Trade idea: take-profit on BRL, TRY, ZAR basket
FOMC review: was it really that dovish?
September 22, 2015
Initial market (and Finance Twitter) reaction to the FOMC decision and subsequent press conference last Thursday seemed pretty unequivocal – this was a dovish hold. The one combination that was likely to lead to the most investor pain. A hawkish hold, or even a hike would have been preferred. But I am once again left … More FOMC review: was it really that dovish?
FOMC: a finely balanced decision
September 17, 2015
You know when “how to understand the Fed” guides appear in the mainstream press that the policy decision tonight has become the most over-analysed ever. So I am not going to add much to the debate here, other to give a short summary of my views. At the start of the year I expected the Fed to hike … More FOMC: a finely balanced decision
Reflections on the rout
August 25, 2015
“Take a deep breath….everything will be okay.” This is something I find myself saying to my kids, who live so in the moment, that anything upsetting right now, might seem to them like it could last forever. Of course, usually within about 10 minutes they have completely forgotten about it and are happily playing again. But … More Reflections on the rout
EM: Update on Troubled Three and currency weakness
August 18, 2015
A quick update to the post from a little under a month ago on the Troubled Three – Brazil, Turkey and South Africa (here). At the time I argued that the fundamentals suggested a further weakening in these currencies, and that from a trading perspective, the momentum was supportive. Over the past month an equal-weighted basket … More EM: Update on Troubled Three and currency weakness
Fundamental Macro 