The RBA is the first central bank to get the opportunity opine on the mess in Greece/Europe tomorrow, when it puts out its July policy statement. While the implications for Australia are likely to be very limited (particularly as the market seems to have taken things rather well so far today), it will no doubt get … More RBA: on hold, for now
For the uninitiated, the quarterly Australian Capex data is possibly the most confusing macro release anywhere in the world. But it is a treasure trove of information, which provides one of the richest possible pictures of capital expenditure now and over the coming couple of years. Of course, the usual caveats apply when analysing these data, … More Australian data: Capex cliff worsens
Just a quick note on the RBA decision overnight. The market got a bit ahead of itself in pricing in an 80% probability of a cut in April, while the majority of local analysts stuck with their call for a May cut. I was in the May camp too (see here) given the paucity of … More RBA: all to play for in May
As I expected, the RBA held steady overnight, disappointing the market and the majority of economists on the street. However, the accompanying statement – while little changed in substance from February – gave a fairly clear steer that further easing is likely. The key final section says: “At today’s meeting the Board judged that, having eased … More RBA: no change, but with an easing bias
I do sometimes wonder what the economics community in Australia is up to. Just a month ago only 7 out of 29 in the Bloomberg survey expected rates to be cut to 2.25% from 2.5% (Westpac was the only big domestic bank calling for the cut – well done Bill Evans). And of those who … More RBA: what a difference a month makes
Fundamental Macro 