FOMC: let’s see how the market responds to pure data-dependence

The FOMC meeting today will be accompanied by just a short statement. Outside the quarterly press conferences, the meetings tend to be less market-moving, and this one shouldn’t provide any surprises in of itself, as the March statement made clear that April was not on the cards for lift-off. However, unless the Committee choose to … More FOMC: let’s see how the market responds to pure data-dependence

Brexit: weighing the economic costs and benefits

Following Tony Blair’s recent intervention in the UK election campaign (here), and with UKIP trying its hardest to keep in the headlines, I thought a post on the economic costs and benefits of Britain leaving the EU would be worthwhile. A lot has been written on the subject since PM Cameron pledged to hold a … More Brexit: weighing the economic costs and benefits

UK election 2015: it’s going to be messy

If you are interested in the likely outcome of the UK general election on 7 May, then I can’t recommend highly enough the team at http://www.electionforecast.co.uk They are working with the US statistician Nate Silver (http://fivethirtyeight.com/) who is now widely regarded as the best at interpreting US election polls (and indeed all things statistical). The … More UK election 2015: it’s going to be messy

US data primer: the folly of non-farm payrolls; signal vs noise

I have spent a bit of time – over an otherwise very enjoyable Easter long weekend – thinking about the US non-farm payrolls print last Friday. Once again the market reacted strongly to a surprise, but this time it was to the downside. Front-end FI rallied, the dollar sold off and equities kind of went meh, so … More US data primer: the folly of non-farm payrolls; signal vs noise