“Take a deep breath….everything will be okay.” This is something I find myself saying to my kids, who live so in the moment, that anything upsetting right now, might seem to them like it could last forever. Of course, usually within about 10 minutes they have completely forgotten about it and are happily playing again. But … More Reflections on the rout
The BoE’s first “super Thursday” has come and gone, with most of the commentary since suggesting it wasn’t quite so super after all. But I actually thought there was a lot of important messages from the press conference and supporting materials. I will go through my key takeaways below, but I thought it was first worth … More BoE: “super Thursday” and inflation overshooting
Tomorrow brings a new era of MPC communications strategy from the BoE. Gone are the one and two week gaps between the policy announcement and the press conference and minutes respectively. And instead we get what has been dubbed “super Thursday”. Starting at 12.00 we get the policy announcement (with a new statement summarising the decision), … More BoE: “super Thursday”; Part 2
I received the question below earlier today about potential short sterling reaction to the BoE on Thursday. I thought I would post the answer below, and follow up tomorrow with some more detailed thoughts on what will likely be an eventful day. Mick, would you agree on the following ? Re Thursay’s BOE vote on … More BoE: “super Thursday”, Part 1
After a run of somewhat more upbeat economic assessments from MPC members this week (see here for David Miles speech and here for TSC hearing), Governor Carney’s speech last night (here) was even more explicit about the MPC’s (or Carney’s at least) view on the likely timing of the first rate hike, and the subsequent path. I … More BoE: we are getting close now
With the much-anticipated new communications regime not starting for another month, no change for the BoE today meant today was a non-event. However, we have had 24 hours to digest the post-election “emergency” budget delivered by the Chancellor yesterday. It turned out, once again, that Osborne’s bark is worse than his bite. Throughout the election … More BoE: austerity ‘lite’ prevents BoE fright
Tomorrow night brings the annual Mansion House (MH) speech, the most important of the year for the Governor of the BoE. While some MH speeches have been dull affairs, with the Chancellor taking the limelight, the Governor tends to use it to make significant policy statements or announcements. Indeed, I would say that it has … More BoE: More Mansion House Malaise?
I closed out my short sterling position on 13 May (see here for original trade analysis and here for close post), following the release of the BoE’s Inflation Report. I was concerned that the BoE was taking a more dovish tone and that the risk/reward to the front end was shifting. Having spent some time … More Trade review: short sterling
First day back after two weeks early summer sunshine in Salento (the heel of Italy) and I have spent the afternoon watching the BoE MPC press conference on playback and reading the May Inflation Report. And while watching events from afar last week left me a little worried that the risks were tipping to a later … More BoE: edging closer to the start of normalisation
Just over a month ago I posted a trade recommendation to sell front short sterling contracts (here). The trade summary was: With a 300k DV01 allocation (100k in each bucket) the current PnL on the trade is $4.1m, close to half way to the target. The trade is working nicely, but I wonder whether it … More Trade idea: update on paid short sterling
Fundamental Macro 