Since my original trade idea post (here) in late July and update (here) on the “Troubled Three”, their currencies have weakened further against the dollar. BRL went through my target a little while ago, and while TRY and ZAR a a little off their lows, they are also around my target range. I am starting … More Trade idea: take-profit on BRL, TRY, ZAR basket
“Take a deep breath….everything will be okay.” This is something I find myself saying to my kids, who live so in the moment, that anything upsetting right now, might seem to them like it could last forever. Of course, usually within about 10 minutes they have completely forgotten about it and are happily playing again. But … More Reflections on the rout
A quick update to the post from a little under a month ago on the Troubled Three – Brazil, Turkey and South Africa (here). At the time I argued that the fundamentals suggested a further weakening in these currencies, and that from a trading perspective, the momentum was supportive. Over the past month an equal-weighted basket … More EM: Update on Troubled Three and currency weakness
At the October 2013 IMF meetings, much of the talk was of the Fed taper tantrum and the knock-on effect to emerging market economies (EMEs). At around that time Morgan Stanley economists came up with a catchy name for those EMEs who looked the most vulnerable to a significant correction – the Fragile Five. At that time … More EM: The Troubled Three
Fundamental Macro 