Since my original trade idea post (here) in late July and update (here) on the “Troubled Three”, their currencies have weakened further against the dollar. BRL went through my target a little while ago, and while TRY and ZAR a a little off their lows, they are also around my target range. I am starting … More Trade idea: take-profit on BRL, TRY, ZAR basket
“Take a deep breath….everything will be okay.” This is something I find myself saying to my kids, who live so in the moment, that anything upsetting right now, might seem to them like it could last forever. Of course, usually within about 10 minutes they have completely forgotten about it and are happily playing again. But … More Reflections on the rout
We got the latest inflation print from Japan overnight. And once you strip out the effects of the VAT hike last year, CPI inflation less food (the version the BoJ target) has fallen to zero in February. Similarly, the ex-food and energy series has also fallen to zero, but somewhat less quickly. The stated aim … More BoJ: one chart says a lot
Following on from my “parity party” post, I have done a bit more thinking on euro. And maybe I am getting caught up in the hype. Here are a few charts maybe make the case for parity (or worse) a little tougher. Much of the focus is on relative monetary stance of the US and … More Euro: more thoughts on euro weakness
After a bit of a pause in February, the euro has once again started falling, following the start of sovereign bond purchases by the ECB and yet another strong US non-farm payrolls print. So just how low can it go? I see plenty of analysts calling for 105 or lower by the end of the … More Euro: when should we book the parity party?