At the October 2013 IMF meetings, much of the talk was of the Fed taper tantrum and the knock-on effect to emerging market economies (EMEs). At around that time Morgan Stanley economists came up with a catchy name for those EMEs who looked the most vulnerable to a significant correction – the Fragile Five. At that time … More EM: The Troubled Three
In the IMF’s most recent Article IV on the US (here), they made the case for the Fed to hold off on raising rates until 2016. One of the factors that they pointed to was the experience of Sweden in recent years, who raised rates, only to have to cut them again even more more … More FOMC: The US is not Sweden
After nearly six months of blogging I have decided to give things a bit of a freshen up, with a new colour scheme and header. And after a bit of cajoling, I have decided to stop hiding behind the anonymous byline and fess up to who is actually doing the writing (in part because a good … More A change of look and a bit more info…
I have long held the view that Mario Draghi is the central banker of his generation. Critics would be quick to point out that if he was so great, then the ECB would have acted more quickly and effectively to the euro zone crisis. Instead of waiting until the summer of 2012, something like OMT should … More ECB: a master-class from Draghi
After a run of somewhat more upbeat economic assessments from MPC members this week (see here for David Miles speech and here for TSC hearing), Governor Carney’s speech last night (here) was even more explicit about the MPC’s (or Carney’s at least) view on the likely timing of the first rate hike, and the subsequent path. I … More BoE: we are getting close now
For the past couple of months I have resisted the temptation to write about the Greek situation. In part, because it has so completely dominated other blogs/Twitter that there didn’t seem to be much value in adding another voice to the cacophony, and in part because I just felt a bit fatigued by the whole thing (I … More EU: Greece and the road to an ever-closer Union
With the much-anticipated new communications regime not starting for another month, no change for the BoE today meant today was a non-event. However, we have had 24 hours to digest the post-election “emergency” budget delivered by the Chancellor yesterday. It turned out, once again, that Osborne’s bark is worse than his bite. Throughout the election … More BoE: austerity ‘lite’ prevents BoE fright
The RBA is the first central bank to get the opportunity opine on the mess in Greece/Europe tomorrow, when it puts out its July policy statement. While the implications for Australia are likely to be very limited (particularly as the market seems to have taken things rather well so far today), it will no doubt get … More RBA: on hold, for now
Fundamental Macro 