“Take a deep breath….everything will be okay.” This is something I find myself saying to my kids, who live so in the moment, that anything upsetting right now, might seem to them like it could last forever. Of course, usually within about 10 minutes they have completely forgotten about it and are happily playing again. But … More Reflections on the rout
I have long held the view that Mario Draghi is the central banker of his generation. Critics would be quick to point out that if he was so great, then the ECB would have acted more quickly and effectively to the euro zone crisis. Instead of waiting until the summer of 2012, something like OMT should … More ECB: a master-class from Draghi
For the past couple of months I have resisted the temptation to write about the Greek situation. In part, because it has so completely dominated other blogs/Twitter that there didn’t seem to be much value in adding another voice to the cacophony, and in part because I just felt a bit fatigued by the whole thing (I … More EU: Greece and the road to an ever-closer Union
In the midst of the ongoing bailout nonsense negotiations with Greece, the long-awaited roadmap document for the future of the European economic and monetary union was released earlier this week (here). It comes over 18 months after the original “Four Presidents” report of November 2012 (here), with the Commission taking the baton from the Council in … More Euro Area: The Five Presidents’ Report: the solutions remain the same, it’s over to the politicians
I am still adjusting to the fact that ECB meetings aren’t always on Thursday any more…so a somewhat late offering in terms of my views ahead of the press conference this afternoon. So can Draghi restrain himself, or will he be smiling from ear to ear and patting himself on the back? He has some … More ECB: can Draghi restrain himself?
Following on from my “parity party” post, I have done a bit more thinking on euro. And maybe I am getting caught up in the hype. Here are a few charts maybe make the case for parity (or worse) a little tougher. Much of the focus is on relative monetary stance of the US and … More Euro: more thoughts on euro weakness
After a bit of a pause in February, the euro has once again started falling, following the start of sovereign bond purchases by the ECB and yet another strong US non-farm payrolls print. So just how low can it go? I see plenty of analysts calling for 105 or lower by the end of the … More Euro: when should we book the parity party?
Draghi gave a cautiously optimistic press conference yesterday. Putting to one side the raft of questions relating to Greece and Cyprus, the message I took away was that the ECB are pretty pleased with both the market reaction to the announcement of QE and the modestly more positive economic news over the past month or … More ECB: Draghi cautiously optimistic
Tomorrow we get to hear the latest from President Draghi on the outlook for the euro area, and more on the modalities of the QE programme. As part of their regular roadshows outside of Frankfurt, tomorrow comes from Cyprus. Which is kind of interesting, as with capital controls still in place there, is a Cypriot euro … More ECB: crisis avoided (again), but risks remain