I have spent a bit of time – over an otherwise very enjoyable Easter long weekend – thinking about the US non-farm payrolls print last Friday. Once again the market reacted strongly to a surprise, but this time it was to the downside. Front-end FI rallied, the dollar sold off and equities kind of went meh, so … More US data primer: the folly of non-farm payrolls; signal vs noise
One of my frustrations with the financial markets is the unwarranted importance attached to certain data releases. I think the prime example of this is US retail sales. This has to be one of the most closely watched/anticipated data releases each month, and often results in material market moves on the day depending on whether … More US data primer: the retail sales myth
February payrolls surprised materially on upside, printing 295K vs median expectation of just 235K. The expected combination of payback from a run of very strong prints and bad weather didn’t materialise, and instead the old favourite of the 3-month moving average would have got you closer than anyone in the survey. Alongside the strong jobs … More US NFP: going from strength to strength, but wages disappoint
Fundamental Macro 