With the much-anticipated new communications regime not starting for another month, no change for the BoE today meant today was a non-event. However, we have had 24 hours to digest the post-election “emergency” budget delivered by the Chancellor yesterday. It turned out, once again, that Osborne’s bark is worse than his bite. Throughout the election … More BoE: austerity ‘lite’ prevents BoE fright
The RBA is the first central bank to get the opportunity opine on the mess in Greece/Europe tomorrow, when it puts out its July policy statement. While the implications for Australia are likely to be very limited (particularly as the market seems to have taken things rather well so far today), it will no doubt get … More RBA: on hold, for now
In the midst of the ongoing bailout nonsense negotiations with Greece, the long-awaited roadmap document for the future of the European economic and monetary union was released earlier this week (here). It comes over 18 months after the original “Four Presidents” report of November 2012 (here), with the Commission taking the baton from the Council in … More Euro Area: The Five Presidents’ Report: the solutions remain the same, it’s over to the politicians
Following on from the first part of my June FOMC preview yesterday (here), this post looks at the likely changes to the statement, economic projections and interest rate ‘dot’ plot. Now that the Fed are in more traditional data-dependency mode, I expect only the first paragraph of the statement to change, reflecting the data developments over … More FOMC: June meeting preview; Part 2 (statement, projections and dots)
Earlier this year (indeed since about Q3 last year) I had expected that the Fed would start the process of policy normalisation in June. That was predicated on the idea that the headwinds to growth were abating, the neutral real rate of interest was rising, and without a policy response we would see growth accelerate, unemployment … More FOMC: Preparing for lift-off
Tomorrow night brings the annual Mansion House (MH) speech, the most important of the year for the Governor of the BoE. While some MH speeches have been dull affairs, with the Chancellor taking the limelight, the Governor tends to use it to make significant policy statements or announcements. Indeed, I would say that it has … More BoE: More Mansion House Malaise?
Following my post yesterday looking back at my top trade ideas for the past 3 months (here), it was suggested that I could usefully include a table of total return (%) and Sharpe for each trade. Here it is:
Following on from the recent review of my red list of macro themes (here), this post looks back at how my favourite trade ideas have performed over the past 3 months. Overall, the trades have worked pretty well. All of them are in the money, some more so than others. The trades I have had listed … More Three month review of top trade ideas
For the uninitiated, the quarterly Australian Capex data is possibly the most confusing macro release anywhere in the world. But it is a treasure trove of information, which provides one of the richest possible pictures of capital expenditure now and over the coming couple of years. Of course, the usual caveats apply when analysing these data, … More Australian data: Capex cliff worsens
Having first posted it 3 months ago, it is time for me review my “red list” of global macro themes. I tend to review it on roughly that frequency, in part to see if the themes have endured/played out as I had expected, and partly just because I think it is good practice to have … More Red list review: how are the macro themes developing in 2015?