US data primer: the folly of non-farm payrolls; signal vs noise

I have spent a bit of time – over an otherwise very enjoyable Easter long weekend – thinking about the US non-farm payrolls print last Friday. Once again the market reacted strongly to a surprise, but this time it was to the downside. Front-end FI rallied, the dollar sold off and equities kind of went meh, so … More US data primer: the folly of non-farm payrolls; signal vs noise

US NFP: going from strength to strength, but wages disappoint

February payrolls surprised materially on upside, printing 295K vs median expectation of just 235K. The expected combination of payback from a run of very strong prints and bad weather didn’t materialise, and instead the old favourite of the 3-month moving average would have got you closer than anyone in the survey. Alongside the strong jobs … More US NFP: going from strength to strength, but wages disappoint