A very interesting paper by Hamilton (et al.) out last week looked at the question of neutral real rates in the US (and elsewhere), and how they compared over time with average or ‘trend’ growth rates. Also out last week, was a really important speech by John Williams of the SF Fed, “The Economic Outlook … More FOMC: neutral real rates, accelerating growth and policy normalisation
February payrolls surprised materially on upside, printing 295K vs median expectation of just 235K. The expected combination of payback from a run of very strong prints and bad weather didn’t materialise, and instead the old favourite of the 3-month moving average would have got you closer than anyone in the survey. Alongside the strong jobs … More US NFP: going from strength to strength, but wages disappoint
As promised on Friday, here are a few thoughts on the section of the last FOMC minutes around “Liftoff tools and options”. The first thing that struck me was the following: “In their discussion of these issues, participants generally agreed that it was very important for the commencement of policy firming to proceed successfully. Consequently, … More FOMC: dealing with the plumbing when it comes to liftoff
The January FOMC minutes were unusually long. In addition to the usual annual update of the longer-run goals of monetary policy strategy (which were essentially unchanged from last year, except to reflect new central estimates for the NAIRU), the minutes also contained a further technical discussion on tools for policy liftoff. There are some interesting … More FOMC: June hike remains on the table, but the hurdle is higher
Fundamental Macro 